A Few Loose Screws
Or is that a few screws loose?
by Andy McMillan
As I write this article I have a couple of two inch screws rolling around my desk. A few months back they were buried in the bones of my left ankle. Needless to say, between then and now I’ve experienced a little “hardware removal surgery” and a few doses of really good pain pills. I mention this up front in case what follows leaves you wondering if I not only have a few loose screws on my desk, but perhaps a few screws loose in my head, too.
Anticipating major industry changes is always a challenge but in building controls, automation and energy management it is particularly difficult right now. Traditional methodologies and business models are being stretched to accommodate the growing role of IT as well as rapid advances in wireless, analytics and LED lighting technologies. So any projection of the future has to take into account each of these as well as the interactions among them. That makes prognostication error-prone but since this issue of the Journal is focused on the future of building automation, let me offer the following list of intriguing predictions for the industry over the next fifteen years.
The Bigger They Are The Harder They Fall
Building owner/operators might want to ensure they have effective multiple supplier strategies because it is possible that at least one long-established, multi-billion dollar player in this industry will disappear over the next fifteen years. Why would I say this? Well, it seems to me that some major suppliers are implementing business models driven more by a desire for “recurring revenue” than a desire to serve their customers’ needs. And, other suppliers seem determined to become “solutions providers” without investing enough to fully understand what “solution” means to their customers. If you are working with suppliers that seem to be going down either one of these paths, watch out. No matter how big they might be, losing sight of customer needs is a road that leads suppliers to nowhere but ruin.
Efficiency per se Becomes Passé
Energy efficiency of equipment and controls solutions is currently a significant selection criterion in project bid reviews. That will not last. Increasingly, regulatory requirements (think Title 24 et al.) and voluntary sustainability standards (e.g. LEED) will drive the whole industry to common reference points. At the same time, the industry’s ability to increase efficiency through equipment improvements and controls approaches will plateau leaving most suppliers with comparable solutions from an energy efficiency point of view. As a result, the key issues that will differentiate supplier bids will be their speed of implementation, the simplicity of user interaction with their system, and as always, cost.
Lighting is the Point … the Focal Point, that is
The time is coming when your building’s lighting system will be its focal point for sensor data generation and controls intelligence. In fact, virtually all space sensors and much of the on-site intelligence for building automation and energy management will be embedded in lighting components fifteen years from now. This shift will be driven by the rush to retrofit buildings with LED lighting combined with the low cost of including these capabilities in LED lighting solutions. The result will be widespread implementation of lighting-centric, low-cost, distributed sensor networks that are far more robust and comprehensive than anything being done today. With lighting becoming the focal point for sensors, controls and data collection, it is possible that users will look to lighting suppliers to take the lead in project definition and execution rather than the traditional HVAC companies. If so, this could drive a complete re-shaping of the automation industry (elsewhere referred to Automation Armageddon).
Kiss Programming “Goodbye!”
Controls and energy information system programming will become little more than an interesting anachronism. There simply will not be time or money enough to develop custom controls programming or software for every building, much less for every subsystem in a building. Instead, building components that currently require controls will evolve to the point where they can simply be assembled and then configured at a high level – by people who know buildings and equipment, not programming. Data streams from those systems will flow seamlessly into applications that know how to interpret them and what to do with them. Controls configuration will become much like selecting apps for your smart phone. And, getting access to your controls and energy data steams for analysis and display will be like using the Netflix and Pandora app on your smart TV to access video and audio data streams.
Rags to Riches
Another really easy call is that we will see at least one billion dollar company rise up from the ranks of the innovative “little guys.” It is hard to predict where they will get their start because there is such a wealth of opportunity for new businesses in the industry at this point in time. LED and wireless technologies are enabling new solutions and the “cloud” along with analytics engines are enabling new business models. There is little doubt that you will look back in fifteen years, reflect on the early days of what is then a major company, and wish you could have known now what you will know then.
In The END …
Fifteen years from now, it could be that little of the building automation and energy management industry as we know it will remain. I realize it is an industry that is historically rather slow moving (and I’m being generous at that). But the reality is that the industry is being infused by people, technologies and concepts that have historically been fast moving. Will they slow down just because this industry has been slow? I think not. We are going to see the industry speed up and those facility managers and suppliers who are a little slow will be left behind. Which brings me all the way back to where I started this article … the loose screws on my desk. As long as they were in my ankle, my speed was limited to a slow walk. Taking them out opens up the possibility that, with some work, I could get back to running at full speed. And that raises an interesting question: Do you know of any organizations that have a couple of screws in the ankle that slow them down? In this time of rapid change, unless they are willing to suffer the pain of removing the screws and working to regain full speed, the industry will pass them by. Don’t let your organization be one of them.
Note: the views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the position of BACnet International, ASHRAE, or any other organization.
Or is that a few screws loose?
by Andy McMillan
As I write this article I have a couple of two inch screws rolling around my desk. A few months back they were buried in the bones of my left ankle. Needless to say, between then and now I’ve experienced a little “hardware removal surgery” and a few doses of really good pain pills. I mention this up front in case what follows leaves you wondering if I not only have a few loose screws on my desk, but perhaps a few screws loose in my head, too.
Anticipating major industry changes is always a challenge but in building controls, automation and energy management it is particularly difficult right now. Traditional methodologies and business models are being stretched to accommodate the growing role of IT as well as rapid advances in wireless, analytics and LED lighting technologies. So any projection of the future has to take into account each of these as well as the interactions among them. That makes prognostication error-prone but since this issue of the Journal is focused on the future of building automation, let me offer the following list of intriguing predictions for the industry over the next fifteen years.
The Bigger They Are The Harder They Fall
Building owner/operators might want to ensure they have effective multiple supplier strategies because it is possible that at least one long-established, multi-billion dollar player in this industry will disappear over the next fifteen years. Why would I say this? Well, it seems to me that some major suppliers are implementing business models driven more by a desire for “recurring revenue” than a desire to serve their customers’ needs. And, other suppliers seem determined to become “solutions providers” without investing enough to fully understand what “solution” means to their customers. If you are working with suppliers that seem to be going down either one of these paths, watch out. No matter how big they might be, losing sight of customer needs is a road that leads suppliers to nowhere but ruin.
Efficiency per se Becomes Passé
Energy efficiency of equipment and controls solutions is currently a significant selection criterion in project bid reviews. That will not last. Increasingly, regulatory requirements (think Title 24 et al.) and voluntary sustainability standards (e.g. LEED) will drive the whole industry to common reference points. At the same time, the industry’s ability to increase efficiency through equipment improvements and controls approaches will plateau leaving most suppliers with comparable solutions from an energy efficiency point of view. As a result, the key issues that will differentiate supplier bids will be their speed of implementation, the simplicity of user interaction with their system, and as always, cost.
Lighting is the Point … the Focal Point, that is
The time is coming when your building’s lighting system will be its focal point for sensor data generation and controls intelligence. In fact, virtually all space sensors and much of the on-site intelligence for building automation and energy management will be embedded in lighting components fifteen years from now. This shift will be driven by the rush to retrofit buildings with LED lighting combined with the low cost of including these capabilities in LED lighting solutions. The result will be widespread implementation of lighting-centric, low-cost, distributed sensor networks that are far more robust and comprehensive than anything being done today. With lighting becoming the focal point for sensors, controls and data collection, it is possible that users will look to lighting suppliers to take the lead in project definition and execution rather than the traditional HVAC companies. If so, this could drive a complete re-shaping of the automation industry (elsewhere referred to Automation Armageddon).
Kiss Programming “Goodbye!”
Controls and energy information system programming will become little more than an interesting anachronism. There simply will not be time or money enough to develop custom controls programming or software for every building, much less for every subsystem in a building. Instead, building components that currently require controls will evolve to the point where they can simply be assembled and then configured at a high level – by people who know buildings and equipment, not programming. Data streams from those systems will flow seamlessly into applications that know how to interpret them and what to do with them. Controls configuration will become much like selecting apps for your smart phone. And, getting access to your controls and energy data steams for analysis and display will be like using the Netflix and Pandora app on your smart TV to access video and audio data streams.
Rags to Riches
Another really easy call is that we will see at least one billion dollar company rise up from the ranks of the innovative “little guys.” It is hard to predict where they will get their start because there is such a wealth of opportunity for new businesses in the industry at this point in time. LED and wireless technologies are enabling new solutions and the “cloud” along with analytics engines are enabling new business models. There is little doubt that you will look back in fifteen years, reflect on the early days of what is then a major company, and wish you could have known now what you will know then.
In The END …
Fifteen years from now, it could be that little of the building automation and energy management industry as we know it will remain. I realize it is an industry that is historically rather slow moving (and I’m being generous at that). But the reality is that the industry is being infused by people, technologies and concepts that have historically been fast moving. Will they slow down just because this industry has been slow? I think not. We are going to see the industry speed up and those facility managers and suppliers who are a little slow will be left behind. Which brings me all the way back to where I started this article … the loose screws on my desk. As long as they were in my ankle, my speed was limited to a slow walk. Taking them out opens up the possibility that, with some work, I could get back to running at full speed. And that raises an interesting question: Do you know of any organizations that have a couple of screws in the ankle that slow them down? In this time of rapid change, unless they are willing to suffer the pain of removing the screws and working to regain full speed, the industry will pass them by. Don’t let your organization be one of them.
Note: the views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the position of BACnet International, ASHRAE, or any other organization.